Linking Population, Fertility and Family Planning with Adaptation to Climate Change: Views from Ethiopia

As global climate change unfolds, its effects are being felt disproportionately in the world's poorest countries and among the groups of people least able to cope. Many of the countries hardest hit by the effects of climate change also face rapid population growth, with their populations on track to double by 2050.Population Action International (PAI) and Miz-Hasab Research Center (MHRC), in collaboration with the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), studied which groups are most vulnerable, what community members say they need to adapt, and the role of family planning and reproductive health in increasing resilience to climate change impacts.The study was carried out in 2008-2009 in peri-urban and rural areas of two regions in Ethiopia: the Oromia region and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's (SNNP) region

Livelihood insecurity among urban households in Ethiopia

This study is based on a survey of households undertaken in the last quarter of 2001 for ILO as part of the project entitled People's Security Survey (PSS). The main objective of PSS was to try to capture people's perceptions and normative values of "livelihood" security. The PSS consists of a research framework developed by ILO focusing on poverty, labor market experience, and access to social protection policies and institutions of representation. The main instrument employed here was an extensive questionnaire originally administered on a sample of 1609 households from both urban and rural areas. For the purposes of the present work, we have removed the rural households in the sample to give the study a wholly urban focus. The present work is thus based on the findings of the survey of 1202 urban households. The towns in which the survey was undertaken were Addis Ababa, Debre Zeit, Mojo and Nazareth. The findings of the study reveal a population that is fearful and anxious about its basic subsistence, which is dependent on low and insecure income, inadequate social services, a shrinking labor market, and which is faced with gloomy prospects. It was evident that the great majority of households are weighed down by livelihood insecurity, with the threat of iv impoverishment and loss of means for basic sustenance hanging over them as a matter of course. The study reveals a great deal ofpessimism on the part of many: pessimism about one's basic security, about employment opportunities, and the chances for self-improvement. Most households are doubtful if there will be economic growth, or if the problem of poverty will be successfully tackled. Respondents were ashed to give their opinion about government programs to reduce poverty on the one hand, and to promote economic growth on the other. Obviously success in reducing poverty and boosting economic growth will have a positive impact on employment and business activity, and respondents were aware that the two issues are closely linked with their own livelihood. A good majority thought that the government's efforts on both counts were unsuccessful: the figures were 64 percent and 59 percent respectively. Only about 28 percent thought the programs were successful

Who Wants to Work in a Rural Health Post? The Role of Intrinsic Motivation, Rural Background and Faith-Based Institutions in Rwanda and Ethiopia

Background: Most developing countries face shortages of health workers in rural areas. This has profound consequences for health service delivery, and ultimately for health outcomes. To design policies that rectify these geographic imbalances it is vital to understand what factors determine health workers’ choice to work in rural areas. But empirical analysis of health worker preferences has remained limited due to the lack of data. Methods: Using unique contingent valuation data from a cohort survey of 412 nursing and medical students in Rwanda, this paper examines the determinants of future health workers’ willingness to work in rural areas, as measured by rural reservation wages, using regression analysis. These data are also combined with those from an identical survey in Ethiopia to enable a two-country analysis. Results: Health workers with higher intrinsic motivation - measured as the importance attached to helping the poor - as well as those who have grown up in a rural area, and Adventists who participate in a local bonding scheme are all significantly more willing to work in a rural area. The main Rwanda result for intrinsic motivation is strikingly similar to that obtained for Ethiopia and Rwanda together. Discussion: The results suggest that in addition to economic incentives, intrinsic motivation and rural origin play an important role in health workers’ decisions to work in a rural area, and that faith-based institutions matter.

Who Wants to Work in a Rural Health Post? The Role of Intrinsic Motivation, Rural Background and Faith-Based Institutions in Rwanda and Ethiopia

Most developing countries face shortages of health workers in rural areas. This has profound consequences for health service delivery, and ultimately for health outcomes. To design policies that rectify these geographic imbalances it is vital to understand what factors determine health workers' choice to work in rural areas. But empirical analysis of health worker preferences has remained limited due to the lack of data. Using unique contingent valuation data from a cohort survey of 412 nursing and medical students in Rwanda, this paper examines the determinants of future health workers' willingness to work in rural areas, as measured by rural reservation wages, using regression analysis. These data are also combined with those from an identical survey in Ethiopia to enable a two-country analysis. We find that health workers with higher intrinsic motivation – measured as the importance attached to helping the poor – as well as those who have grown up in a rural area, and Adventists who participate in a local bonding scheme are all significantly more willing to work in a rural area. The main Rwanda result for intrinsic motivation is strikingly similar to that obtained for Ethiopia and Rwanda together. These results suggest that in addition to economic incentives, intrinsic motivation and rural origin play an important role in health workers' decisions to work in a rural area, and that faith-based institutions matter.health care delivery, health workers, labour supply, public service

Disentangling HIV and AIDS Stigma in Ethiopia,Tanzania and Zambia

The International Center for Research on Women (ICRW), in partnership with organizations in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Zambia, led a study of HIV and AIDS-related stigma and discrimination in these three countries. This project, conducted from April 2001 to September 2003, unraveled the complexities around stigma by investigating the causes, manifestations and consequences of HIV and AIDS-related stigma and discrimination in sub-Saharan Africa. It then uses this analysis to suggest program interventions. Structured text analysis of 730 qualitative transcripts (650 interviews and 80 focus group discussions) and quantitative analysis of 400 survey respondents from rural and urban areas in these countries revealed the following main insights about the causes, context, experience and consequences of stigma: The main causes of stigma relate to incomplete knowledge, fears of death and disease, sexual norms and a lack of recognition of stigma. Insufficient and inaccurate knowledge combines with fears of death and disease to perpetuate beliefs in casual transmission and, thereby, avoidance of those with HIV. The knowledge that HIV can be transmitted sexually combines with an association of HIV with socially “improper” sex, such that people with HIV are stigmatized for their perceived immoral behavior. Finally, people often do not recognize that their words or actions are stigmatizing. Socio-economic status, age and gender all influence the experience of stigma. The poor are blamed less for their infection than the rich, yet they face greater stigma because they have fewer resources to hide an HIV-positive status. Youth are blamed in all three countries for spreading HIV through what is perceived as their highly risky sexual behavior. While both men and women are stigmatized for breaking sexual norms, gender-based power results in women being blamed more easily. At the same time, the consequences of HIV infection, disclosure, stigma and the burden of care are higher for women than for men. People living with HIV and AIDS face physical and social isolation from family, friends, and community; gossip, name-calling and voyeurism; and a loss of rights, decision-making power and access to resources and livelihoods. People with HIV internalize these experiences and consequently feel guilty, ashamed and inferior. They may, as a result, isolate themselves and lose hope. Those associated with people with HIV and AIDS, especially family members, friends and caregivers, face many of these same experiences in the form of secondary stigma. People living with HIV and AIDS and their families develop various strategies to cope with stigma. Decisions around disclosure depend on whether or not disclosing would help to cope (through care) or make the situation worse (through added stigma). Some cope by participating in networks of people with HIV and actively working in the field of HIV or by confronting stigma in their communities. Others look for alternative explanations for HIV besides sexual transmission and seek comfort, often turning to religion to do so. Stigma impedes various programmatic efforts. Testing, disclosure, prevention and care and support for people with HIV are advocated, but are impeded by stigma. Testing and disclosure are recognized as difficult because of stigma, and prevention is hampered because preventive methods such as condom use or discussing safe sex are considered indications of HIV infection or immoral behaviors and are thus stigmatized. Available care and support are accompanied by judgmental attitudes and isolating behavior, which can result in people with HIV delaying care until absolutely necessary. There are also many positive aspects of the way people deal with HIV and stigma. People express good intentions to not stigmatize those with HIV. Many recognize that their limited knowledge has a role in perpetuating stigma and are keen to learn more. Families, religious organizations and communities provide care, empathy and support for people with HIV and AIDS. Finally, people with HIV themselves overcome the stigma they face to challenge stigmatizing social norms. Our study points to five critical elements that programs aiming to tackle stigma need to address: Create greater recognition of stigma and discrimination. Foster in-depth, applied knowledge about all aspects of HIV and AIDS through a participatory and interactive process. Provide safe spaces to discuss the values and beliefs about sex, morality and death that underlie stigma. Find common language to talk about stigma. Ensure a central, contextually-appropriate and ethically-responsible role for people with HIV and AIDS While all individuals and groups have a role in reducing stigma, policymakers and programmers can start with certain key groups that our study suggests are a priority: Families caring for people living with HIV and AIDS: programs can help families both to cope with the burden of care and also to recognize and modify their own stigmatizing behavior. NGOs and other community-based organizations: NGOs can train their own staff to recognize and deal with stigma, incorporate ways to reduce stigma in all activities, and critically examine their communication methods and materials. Religious and faith-based organizations: these can be supportive of people living with HIV and AIDS in their role as religious leaders and can incorporate ways to reduce stigma in their community service activitie

Good Health at Low Cost 25 years on: lessons for the future of health systems strengthening.

In 1985, the Rockefeller Foundation published Good health at low cost to discuss why some countries or regions achieve better health and social outcomes than do others at a similar level of income and to show the role of political will and socially progressive policies. 25 years on, the Good Health at Low Cost project revisited these places but looked anew at Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kyrgyzstan, Thailand, and the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, which have all either achieved substantial improvements in health or access to services or implemented innovative health policies relative to their neighbours. A series of comparative case studies (2009-11) looked at how and why each region accomplished these changes. Attributes of success included good governance and political commitment, effective bureaucracies that preserve institutional memory and can learn from experience, and the ability to innovate and adapt to resource limitations. Furthermore, the capacity to respond to population needs and build resilience into health systems in the face of political unrest, economic crises, and natural disasters was important. Transport infrastructure, female empowerment, and education also played a part. Health systems are complex and no simple recipe exists for success. Yet in the countries and regions studied, progress has been assisted by institutional stability, with continuity of reforms despite political and economic turmoil, learning lessons from experience, seizing windows of opportunity, and ensuring sensitivity to context. These experiences show that improvements in health can still be achieved in countries with relatively few resources, though strategic investment is necessary to address new challenges such as complex chronic diseases and growing population expectations

How Can the Health System Retain Women in HIV Treatment for a Lifetime? A Discrete Choice Experiment in Ethiopia and Mozambique

Introduction: Option B+, an approach that involves provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to all HIV-infected pregnant women for life, is the preferred strategy for prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV. Lifelong retention in care is essential to its success. We conducted a discrete choice experiment in Ethiopia and Mozambique to identify health system characteristics preferred by HIV-infected women to promote continuity of care. Methods: Women living with HIV and receiving care at hospitals in Oromia Region, Ethiopia and Zambézia Province, Mozambique were shown nine choice cards and asked to select one of two hypothetical health facilities, each with six varying characteristics related to the delivery of HIV services for long term treatment. Mixed logit models were used to estimate the influence of six health service attributes on choice of clinics. Results: 2,033 women participated in the study (response rate 97.8% in Ethiopia and 94.7% in Mozambique). Among the various attributes of structure and content of lifelong ART services, the most important attributes identified in both countries were respectful provider attitude and ability to obtain non-HIV health services during HIV-related visits. Availability of counseling support services was also a driver of choice. Facility type, i.e., hospital versus health center, was substantially less important. Conclusions: Efforts to enhance retention in HIV care and treatment for pregnant women should focus on promoting respectful care by providers and integrating access to non-HIV health services in the same visit, as well as continuing to strengthen counseling

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury